Post Draft Thoughts

Although I didn't really stick with posting my NBA Playoffs bets on the blog, I enjoyed doing it and I will probably do it to a fuller capacity next season, assuming there is one. I found it tough to fully envelope myself in the game if I was thinking about my blog and such. However, DP and I were extremely successful betting throughout the playoffs and the Mavericks were a big part of it. We went 12-1 taking the Mavericks against the spread (ATS) throughout, and the Finals were no different. Anyone who bought points for the Mavs probably felt even better each game they covered. As the season is over, and my sports knowledge is primarily limited to NBA and NFL. DP is taking over the reigns as account manager. We ended up taking a few bets on the Draft and came out on top with all but one of them cashing in. We went heavy on Kemba Walker getting picked later than the 6th Pick (+6.5) and cashed in quite nicely. One would say DP is ballin'.

Regarding the actual draft though, I feel really good with how the Wizards' management performed. Taking Jan Vesely at 6 was obviously the bright spot. We wanted him, he wanted us, a match made in heaven. As he kissed his girlfriend in celebration, we had to pause it (<3 DVR) and make note that she was near 6'3" and upon further Google inspection, realized she was part of the Czech Republic Woman's National team. Anyway, I really liked drafting Chris Singleton and Shelvin Mack as we addressed several gaping holes in our roster with young talent. Chris Singleton has the ability to be a lock down defender in the NBA, clearly something the Wizards have lacked since (...Deshawn?) forever, and Shelvin Mack as a solid back-up point guard for John Wall. This ended up possibly being the best draft the Wizards (maybe even Bullets, too) have seen in a long, long time, and the best under Grunfeld by far, so yeah, it's a big deal.

Mavericks vs. Thunder; Game 4 Western Conference Finals

Tonight DP and I have the Mavs taking Game 4 on the road in OKC. One of the best playoff road teams we have ever seen, this team seems to be on a mission and is extremely hungry. Dirk has had some relatively off games, and I think he comes back with a strong(er) performance tonight. Mavs will go up early and OKC will struggle to come back until it's too late, so I like the points and over. Most money is on OKC from what I have seen, but I think we can expect big games from Chandler and Marion tonight. Mavericks have been very good to us all post-season, and we have an incredible 8-1 record taking them against the spread. Feeling good about this one.

May 23, 2011:

• [Me/DP] Mavericks +155 ML
• [DP] Mavericks Adjusted Line -4.5 (+250)
• [DP] Over 195.5
• [DP] Over 196
• [DP] Mavericks +4

Futures:

• [DP] Dirk Nowitzki (Mavs) Odds to Win the 2011 NBA Finals MVP +1500

Sunday's Results:

0-4; massive Bulls fail on Sunday. Keith Bogans especially. First half accumulation = 5, second half accumulation = 0. Lame. Back to the drawing board, these nights happen.

Back in Business

Yo. I've been completely consumed by the NBA Playoffs so my blog collected some dust. I want to bring the light and share some knowledge considering the NBA Draft is in a month and the Finals even sooner. So with the Wizards all but forgotten on the scene (with a weak 6th overall pick), I have tuned my NBA involvement up one notch. A single notch.

DP and I started betting on NBA in April and have had solid success with profit at 200% and as high as 350%. We experienced a slight, recent slump but these playoffs have truly been a circus. My reason for blogging our picks is so I can record my thought processes and progress as well as track useful statistics and sources.

We begin with Bulls vs. Heat Game 3 of 2011 Conference Finals. Splendid.

Bulls vs. Heat; Game 3 Eastern Conference Finals

Tonight I'm really liking the Bulls and DP the under. We both feel very good about the under and it's going to be close. Our refs tonight tend to let players play, so we can expect a defensive struggle all game. However, the Bulls will not struggle as they did in Game 2, and I am fully expecting them to bounce back from that terrible performance. There are a few things that will not occur in this game that occured in Game 2: Bulls 3-20 3P FG, Haslem dominance and terrible Bulls FT shooting (61.5%).

Haslem and LeBron will, relatively, come back to earth in game 3. Heat will take the lead going in to the 2nd half but Bulls will come back to win and cover. Some things I expect to occur include: Big game by Noah, better SG play for Bulls and for Bosh to once again handle Boozer. Bulls are 27-11 ATS as a road dog, and I believe Miami gets cold quickly because of the three day layoff. However, Miami is undefeated at home in the playoffs. That ends tonight.

May 22, 2011:

• [Me] Bulls +170 ML
• [DP] Under 179
• [Me](Parlay) Bulls +4.5 / Under 179.5
• [DP](Player prop) Keith Bogans (Bulls) Total Points+Rebounds+Assists: Over 6.5 (-105)

Futures:

• [DP] Dirk Nowitzki (Mavs) Odds to Win the 2011 NBA Finals MVP +1500

Oh ESPN...

ESPN has recently announced that it would be covering LeBron James' new team, the Miami Heat, during training camp at Eglin Air Force Base in Fort Walton Beach, Fla. Training camp begins on Tuesday, and well, this is incredibly disappointing. I've done a pretty good job distancing myself from the grossly unbiased reporting provided by ESPN, but this still makes me sad. The cutesy sports network has yet to learn from one of network television's biggest debacles of recent memory, "The Decision". We all know how absolutely shortsighted and silly it was, but what do ESPN's own representatives think?

Here is a compelling article on just that by ESPN's ombudsman Don Ohlmeyer on "The Decision Dilemma" from July, 2010. It's a late link, but a great read.

Just Can't Contain It...

As the title reads, things are in full swing. Fall has arrived, and with that, comes the 2010-2011 NFL season, and with that comes fantasy football! So far my teams are a collective 2-0, and I am pleased with their composition. As for my blogging hiatus, I have been adjusting to the transition of living on my own again and my fall semester schedule. Now that I have all that down pat and the apartment is livable, I can come back better than ever. I feel like Brett Favre with this blogging thing but give me some credit, I'm way less of an ass about it.

As much as I love the NFL season, it's really just a precursor to the NBA season for me. This may be for several reasons, the most obvious being that the Broncos just do not have title hopes and Elvis Dumervil being out for the season. Don't take what I said out of context, I am by no means a fair weather fan because I have seen some unbelievable things happen to my teams, and I'm still here. It's not that I am not giving the NFL season dap because my team isn't contending (holy triple negative), it's because I am that much more excited for my Wizards season to begin.

Through the disappointment of my transpiring thought process, therein lies hope in the form of the number draft pick in June's 2010 NBA draft. @jimmywa11 has me so excited for this season and I can't really contain it. His 2010 Summer League performance was highly impressive, as he was the first player to lead the league in points per game and assists per game. This is significant because we have so little a sample to analyze Wall aside from Summer League, i.e. one season at Kentucky. I've read all sorts of opinions involving the uncertainty of Wall's assets, namely his play-making ability and tendency to turn the ball over. These are problems all rookies tend to have, but when you mix his dedication to basketball and winning I strongly believe these issues will be moot. All superlatives aside, John Wall is going to be a beast for years to come.

Next, let me tell you why there's more than one reason to be excited about this upcoming season. Javale McGee's hops. That's about sums it up. Dude can sky, and he seemed to have put together a couple of go-to moves in the off-season. He can finish any pass you lob his way because he has ridiculous length and size to supplant his awesome catch radius. I can absolutely see this guy averaging a double-double. He can finish nicely around the hoop with finesse even some gaurds lack, and thus should be able to get a ton of easy baskets.

Surprised I mentioned Javale second? Don't be. We've been down this road before people, I can't continue to hype up players that have led us astray year after year, so I'm trying to be realistic. Key word: trying. So here goes.

So where does Agent Zero fit in all of this? Agent Zero doesn't fit anywhere, because he no longer exists. Gil has changed his jersey number from 0 to 6 to 9, so should we expect some sort of renaissance from him? Not likely, but he's been handling his business a little differently this time around. What we can expect, however, is Gil to be more efficient and productive by focusing on what he does best: scoring. This will be made possible because he is no longer the face of our franchise...meaning he won't be dominating the ball, either. So we lower the expectations a tad and I think what we should see from Agent 9mm (too soon?) is an 80/20 scorers mentality to play-maker ratio. I totally made that up, but I'm using the facts I have in an attempt to be reasonable when assessing his role on the team. The facts: recently, we've heard that Gilbert Arenas was the first member of the Wiz to complete Flip Saunder's conditioning test (no, I do not mean Mike Shanahan's conditioning test). This is encouraging, of course, after all of the injuries and question marks surrounding Gil in recent years. He's a full two years healed from the knee injury that kept him out for so many games, and a half season removed from his run-in with the law. Thus, we can deduce that he's strong, healthy and a little bit more wise. But since he's been hiding from the media, those of us out of the loop can only speculate using the information we are provided by those in the loop.

There isn't too much left to talk about, but I have to mention the new additions to the squad, and the news that 7 Day Dray will be ready for training camp. If there is anyone that needs the extra time to get into game-shape and gel with teammates, its Blatche. Once again, encouraging, but suspect as always. Kirk Hinrich and the re-signing of Josh Howard is all but fun, but the acquisition that intrigues me most is Yi Jianlian. Yi demolished teams in the early rounds of the FIBA Worlds, averaging about 20 and 8. However, he disappeared when it counted most as teams began to focus on him more by frustrating him with double teams and he began to make moves that looked uncomfortable. Regardless, the skill set is there, but the confidence comes and goes with the days so I will not make any bold statements outside of him being a key contributor for the team this year.

I think my expectations for this season are absolutely realistic. I totally understand that the playoffs are a reach, but 2 of the 8 seeds up for grabs. The way I see it, it's Miami, Orlando, Chicago, Boston, Milwaukee, Atlanta (yes, in that order) and our competition for the final 2 seeds is with the Bobcats, Knicks and the 76ers. I am not too worried about the Knicks as much as I am about the 76ers, but that's a whole different story. So why shouldn't we be mentioned with those teams? We are somewhat deep and have key players whom have great upside. For some of them, that's a familiar tale (i.e. Blatche, McGee, Nick Young), but Wall's upside along with Hinrich's tutelage will mitigate that. We won't be raising any banners this year, especially being in arguably the most stacked division, but we'll be raising some eyebrows (in a good way this time).

The Writing on the Wall

The blog name is finalized I suppose. I'm glad I could thieve this name from @MikePradaSBN when he tweeted it, and I'm hopeful no one else did. Ernie Grunfield also hilariously dubbed Yi Jianlian the Great Wall of Chinatown, so it seems we have the city walled off. Having Yi and Kirk Hinrich certainly should make things interesting next season, and should give John Wall the ability to penetrate with the floor spaced. I'm so goddamn excited for next season, regardless of it's outcome, because I get to watch him play. I'm hoping to get some sort of affordable ticket pacakge to do so live, but we shall see what the prices look like towards the start of the season. I wanted to do a post entirely devoted to Wall, but around the time of the draft I was too caught up in the excitement so I ignored my duties of filling minds with DC championship aspirations. I'm sorry, but I'm back now so lets make due.

It was an interesting day in hoops, as D. Wade and Bosh joined forces in Miami, while Boozer agreed to terms of a deal with Chicago. The numbers don't matter to me too much because they're all making ridiculous money, but I'm glad Boozer could get Rudy Gay cash and that Chi-town didn't up empty handed. With that said, LeBron James will not be going there - he will be staying in Cleveland. As if I didn't hate the guy enough, the thought of him going on national television (ESPN @ 9 pm EST - boycott!!!) and dissing his hometown team for a scrubby Knicks squad would just be icing on the cake. We all know he's a douchebag. He dragged us this far with his ego-mania by announcing and rescheduling his decision date at least two or three times, and really making it tough for any team to finalize their plans because most lower-tier free agents can't do jack until he decides. While I'm sure he's already decided, I don't really care where he goes. The Heat thing would be cool, especially watching them try to field a team with three superstars and 12 minimum level "veterans"; the Bulls could work, but I actually like that team so I'm hoping he doesn't; him going to the Knicks would be hilarious because people (New Yorkers) will think they matter again, because we all know the Knicks ever mattering the in the NBA = biggest NBA myth. Well shit, I just wrote a paragraph about LeBron James, does that mean I care where he goes? NO! I really just feel bad for players and teams that want to actually make some moves to improve their teams because LeBron's decision hinders all of that. This article really sums up my thoughts well, just a little more vulgar than I prefer.

Another big myth is that Mike Miller is a shooter. I remember seeing him hoist approximately 7 three pointers last season, which is why I'm confused that he is in such high demand. Please take him away and overpay him. The Knicks and Cavs are going pretty hard for him, using the knowledge that he and LeBron are pals as a way to lure LeBron or surround him with capable "shooters". How can LeBron be friends with anyone but himself? Maybe I just don't get it.

To no one's surprise, Ray Allen resigned with the Celtics for 2 years and $20, which is totally reasonable and awesome because he deserves every penny. Screw all haters who watched him play for the first time during the Finals and think he's done. Don't hold your breath for Ray Allen fail-fest round 2 because it is NOT coming. The Celtics will be back strong next year with Kwame Brown ownage (seriously), so be ready. The Clippers are going to be back strong too! Wait, they haven't been strong since, well, ever, but they now have .500 coach Vinny Del Negro so they will surely have the talent and ability to climb from the depths to mediocrity. Not bad for the Clips. They drafted fairly well, have Blake Griffin returning, an All-Star center in Kaman and my guy Baron Davis healthy, so no excuse for less than mediocrity from these guys this year. Other than these little tidbits, all I have left to say is that Evan Turner kind of sucks thus far (I've actually watched some Summer League and I know its fairly meaningless, so hush). My hopes are that my next post comes soon and have some interesting Summer League points since I've actually watched more than some of it. These are just my hopes though, I hope I don't get my hopes up.